**TechFlame News** – In its U.S. Economic Weekly report released on July 2, Citi Research stated that the June U.S. nonfarm payroll data showed a clear weakening, strongly countering any argument for the necessity of a rate hike. According to Citi, several factors that had previously supported a hawkish stance—including rising oil prices, accelerating wage growth, and core PCE remaining above target—have now faded, and "the case for a rate hike has disappeared." Data showed that the U.S. added only 57,000 nonfarm payroll jobs in June, significantly below expectations. Moreover, the previous two months' figures were revised down by a combined 74,000 jobs. After the revisions, the average monthly job growth over the past three months fell to approximately 111,000, a sharp decline from the previous average of over 180,000. The unemployment rate dropped from 4.296% to 4.189% in June, but Citi attributed this primarily to a decline in the labor force participation rate from 61.8% to 61.5%. If the participation rate had remained unchanged, the unemployment rate would have actually risen to above 4.5%. On the inflation front, Citi noted that multiple factors are jointly putting downward pressure on prices. Oil prices have fallen back to pre-conflict levels, and July CPI and PCE data are expected to show month-over-month declines. Further slowing in housing rent will also drag down core CPI and core PCE. In addition, revisions to the core PCE methodology will adopt a more reasonable price adjustment approach for AI-related goods. Citi estimates that the year-over-year growth rate of core PCE could be revised down by 20 to 30 basis points as a result, with the change formally reflected in September. Citi maintains its baseline forecast, expecting the Federal Reserve to hold rates steady at both the July and September FOMC meetings, then deliver a 25-basis-point rate cut at the October 28 meeting, followed by another 25-basis-point cut in December. This would bring the federal funds rate range to 3.0%–3.25% by the end of the year. Citi also expects three additional rate cuts in 2027, with a terminal rate range of 2.75%–3.0%.