Next Week’s Macro Outlook: Waller’s “First Act” Approaches as the Fed Prepares to Announce Its Rate Decision
TechFlame
2026-06-13 12:41
TechFlame2026-06-13 12:41
English
**TechFlame News** – Next week, market attention will center on interest rate decisions from the Federal Reserve and several other major central banks. Since being sworn in as the new Fed Chair, Walsh has remained silent, making the press conference following the June rate decision a key test of his monetary policy stance. The market also expects him to send clear signals on communication mechanism reforms at that time. Below are the key market highlights for the coming week (all times in Beijing time):
**Monday 15:15** – ECB President Christine Lagarde delivers a speech.
**Tuesday, TBD** – Bank of Japan announces its interest rate decision; **14:30** – BOJ Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida holds a monetary policy press conference.
**Tuesday 20:15** – U.S. ADP employment change for the week ending May 30.
**Thursday 2:00** – Fed FOMC announces interest rate decision and economic projections summary; **2:30** – Fed Chair Walsh holds a monetary policy press conference.
**Thursday 20:30** – U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending June 13; U.S. June Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index.
In terms of policy signals, the market is focused on whether three hawkish signals from the Fed will materialize. First, whether the phrase "next step leaning toward rate cuts" will be removed from the original policy statement. If removed, it would indicate the Fed has officially ended its previous easing bias and shifted to an anti-inflation policy stance. Second, the dot plot changes: the March dot plot showed one rate cut remaining this year, but this time it is likely to shift toward indicating stable rates, or even expectations of rate hikes by a majority of officials. Third, the risk appetite tilt: if officials' concerns over inflation significantly increase and their worries about the labor market subside, it could pave the way for subsequent rate hikes.
**Friday (June 19)** – In observance of Juneteenth, the New York Stock Exchange will be closed all day. Trading for CME Group's precious metals, energy, forex, equity indices, and U.S. Treasury futures contracts will end early at 01:00 Beijing time on June 20, while trading for ICE's Brent crude oil futures contracts will end early at 01:30 Beijing time on June 20.