Analysis: If the U.S.-Iran conflict persists for several months, war expenditures and debt expansion could potentially benefit Bitcoin.
TechFlame
2026-03-09 16:36
TechFlame2026-03-09 16:36
TechFlame News: Macro strategist Mark Connors suggests that if the conflict between the U.S. and Iran persists for several months, the increased fiscal spending, debt expansion, and potential interest rate declines resulting from the war could create a favorable environment for Bitcoin. Connors notes that wars typically require financing through the issuance of additional government bonds, which increases the supply of U.S. dollars in the financial system, thereby devaluing existing currency and benefiting non-dollar assets like Bitcoin. Since mid-2025, the annualized growth rate of U.S. federal debt has been around 14%. If this trend continues, the debt scale could continue to grow by approximately 15% year-over-year. He believes that such sustained debt expansion is essentially a form of "currency dilution," which has historically been beneficial for Bitcoin's performance. Since the U.S. first launched strikes against Iran, the price of Bitcoin has risen by about 3.6%. As U.S. government debt increases and relies more on short-term Treasury financing, policymakers may be more inclined to lower interest rates in the future to reduce interest burdens. In an environment of "declining interest rates + ongoing debt expansion," liquidity typically improves, which has historically been a strong macro backdrop for Bitcoin's performance.