Analysis: SOPR has dropped to the range of 0.92–0.94, indicating marginal improvements in the macro environment, but a structural bull market for BTC has not yet been established.
TechFlame
2026-02-19 11:56
TechFlame2026-02-19 11:56
English
TechFlame News: Bitfinex's analysis report indicates that the decline in U.S. market inflation and rising expectations of interest rate cuts provide psychological support for risk assets. However, the cryptocurrency market is more likely to experience periodic fluctuations rather than a one-sided trend. The expansion of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet has reduced systemic liquidity risks, which historically has been favorable for scarce assets like Bitcoin. However, the current pace of liquidity recovery remains slow. Early this week, selling pressure on spot Bitcoin reemerged, with cumulative sales reaching tens of billions of dollars. Although the market's ability to absorb selling pressure has improved compared to before, on-chain indicators show that the adjusted SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) has fallen to the 0.92–0.94 range, reflecting that most coins are being transferred at a loss, indicating persistent structural pressure. The current macroeconomic environment provides some liquidity cushion for the cryptocurrency market but is insufficient to sustain a prolonged bull market. Bitcoin has room for tactical rebounds in the short term, but long-term structural upward momentum still requires clearer signals of declining inflation and sustained spot demand support.