Fed's Mouthpiece: The U.S. Economy May Have Achieved a Soft Landing, But No One Is Willing to Declare Victory Prematurely
TechFlame
2026-02-15 14:38
TechFlame2026-02-15 14:38
English
TechFlame News - According to The Wall Street Journal, "Fed Whisperer" Nick Timiraos wrote that key indicators of the U.S. economy are all pointing in a positive direction: inflation is falling, the labor market remains strong, and economic growth is solid. This is not yet a final conclusion, but it marks the closest the U.S. economy has ever come to achieving a soft landing—curbing inflation while avoiding a recession. Just four years ago, many economists believed this was impossible. Now, the scenario of the U.S. economy bringing inflation back to the Fed's 2% target without falling into a recession has once again become credible.
However, even if oxygen masks aren’t needed, it’s still too early to unfasten seatbelts. The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the core PCE annual rate, is currently near 3%. Multiple forecasters expect little significant progress on inflation this year, as price increases related to tariffs ripple through more sectors.
At the same time, the labor market may not be as robust as last week’s report suggested. Jeffrey Cleveland, chief economist at Payden & Rygel, noted that objectively speaking, the labor market has been weakening, and the unemployment rate is more likely to rise than fall this year.