Analysis: Bitcoin shows a negative correlation with Japan's 10-year government bonds; if the Bank of Japan stabilizes the bond market, it could potentially drive a rebound in Bitcoin.
TechFlame
2026-01-23 13:05
TechFlame2026-01-23 13:05
English
TechFlame News: Delphi Digital has posted that Bitcoin prices have stagnated while gold continues to rise. The reason may lie in Japanese government bonds. Typically, rising yields increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets, thereby putting pressure on gold. However, when gold and yields rise simultaneously, the market is essentially pricing in policy pressure and balance sheet fragility rather than economic growth. The yield on Japan's 10-year government bonds is currently about 3.65 standard deviations above its long-term average. The Bank of Japan structurally holds long-term bonds and is deeply exposed to Japanese government bonds in terms of both assets and collateral.
Gold is absorbing this pressure, while Bitcoin shows a negative correlation with Japan's 10-year government bonds. Over the longer term, Bitcoin has struggled to perform as Japanese yields rise. If the Bank of Japan intervenes to stabilize the bond market, the risk premium in gold may ease, and Bitcoin could also gain room for a rebound.