Written by Cookie, The BlockBeats
On the prediction market Polymarket, the probability of Kevin Hassett being elected as the next Federal Reserve Chair has risen to 86%, far ahead of other potential candidates for the new Fed Chair.
Barring any surprises, Kevin Hassett will be the next Federal Reserve Chair—Trump's favorite.
The Federal Reserve's actions have always been a significant factor influencing the cryptocurrency market. So, if Hassett ultimately becomes the new Fed Chair as the market expects, what impacts are anticipated on the market?
Accelerated Interest Rate Cuts
In late November, Hassett stated that pausing interest rate cuts at this time would be a "very bad timing," as the government shutdown has already dragged down economic growth in the fourth quarter. He projected that the government shutdown would cause a 1.5 percentage point decline in fourth-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Meanwhile, he noted that the September Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed inflation performing better than expected.
Earlier, on November 13, Hassett indicated that he expected fourth-quarter GDP to drop by 1.5% due to the government shutdown, seeing little reason not to cut interest rates.
Therefore, if Hassett becomes the new Fed Chair, he is expected to advocate for faster interest rate reductions, potentially lowering the federal funds rate below 3%, or even close to 1%, to stimulate economic growth and employment.
This is also what Trump wants to see.
Resuming QE
On December 1, the Federal Reserve officially ended its Quantitative Tightening (QT) policy, marking the conclusion of the balance sheet reduction process that began in 2022. Although some believe the effects may not materialize until early next year, expectations for easing liquidity are gradually being realized.
Hassett may be more tolerant of inflation, viewing the 2% inflation target as a flexible ceiling rather than a strict anchor. The focus would shift to employment and GDP growth, reducing reliance on data-driven "gradualist" decision-making in favor of more proactive pro-growth interventions.
In September of this year, during an interview with Fox Business, Hassett stated that the U.S. is in a period of supply-side prosperity, and in an economy without genuine inflation, current interest rates are hindering economic growth and job creation. He also mentioned that the U.S. is on track to achieve 4% GDP growth.
His prioritization of economic development over inflation control makes the resumption of Quantitative Easing (QE) under a Hassett-led Fed a plausible expectation.
Impact on Bitcoin
Every candidate for Federal Reserve Chair, regardless of whether they directly discuss cryptocurrency, will structurally impact the crypto industry. Hassett, in particular, has undeniable ties to the crypto sector—he has publicly held millions of dollars worth of Coinbase stock and served on Coinbase's advisory board.
Additionally, he participated in the White House's internal working group on digital asset policy, advocating for preserving space for innovation within the regulatory framework and viewing crypto technology as a crucial variable shaping the future economic structure. He has stated that Bitcoin will "rewrite the rules of finance."
Hassett's crypto background may reduce regulatory uncertainty, encouraging institutional adoption and prompting the Fed to explore cryptocurrency integration. This could enhance Bitcoin's legitimacy and liquidity, potentially driving its price to new highs.
Many traders are optimistic about the market outlook under Hassett's leadership, believing that a bull market will truly begin after he takes office, likely around mid-next year. Therefore, the second half of 2026 is seen as a critical period for the cryptocurrency industry.