November 18 - According to 4E's observations, Bitcoin is entering a zone of extreme panic. On the morning of November 18, it had already fallen below $91,000, plummeting in a free-fall manner. Protective demand in the options market has surged dramatically, with the total bet size for put contracts expiring at the end of November with strike prices of $90,000, $85,000, and even $80,000 exceeding $740 million, indicating that traders are positioning themselves in advance for a deeper decline. Chris Newhouse, Research Director at Ergonia, pointed out that positions purchased over the past six months are now largely deeply underwater, and the buying power of conviction bulls has significantly weakened. The CoinMarketCap sentiment index shows the market is in a state of "extreme fear," with many investors suffering such heavy losses that they are unable to add to their positions yet unwilling to cut their losses, creating a downward price inertia. The pressure is most concentrated on so-called "crypto treasury companies." Enterprises that have heavily accumulated cryptocurrencies this year have become the focus of selling risks. Although Michael Saylor’s MicroStrategy continues to increase its holdings by $835 million in BTC, other companies in the industry are facing balance sheet pressures and are being forced to consider selling assets. Greg Magadini of Amberdata noted that this selling pressure is particularly impacting Ethereum. Currently, large ETH treasury companies are generally in a loss-making position, with ETH falling to $2,975, down 24% since early October. Macro factors are further deteriorating risk appetite. Cooling expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and discussions about an AI bubble are jointly suppressing the market. Analysts at Kaiko emphasized that these two factors will continue to pose major headwinds until the end of the year. Since early October, the cryptocurrency market has erased approximately $19 billion in market capitalization, with open interest in futures continuously declining. Open interest for smaller-cap tokens like Solana has been halved. Kraken economist Perfumo pointed out that the current market panic stems more from macroeconomic anxiety than structural issues within the crypto industry. 4E Commentary: The speed of BTC’s decline reflects the chain liquidation effect amid tightening liquidity, with the options market already betting on the $80,000 range in advance. The combination of fragile short-term sentiment, treasury selling pressure, and macroeconomic headwinds means the market must remain vigilant against a secondary deep decline. However, the core risk lies in macroeconomic factors rather than the fundamentals of the crypto industry itself.