10x Research: Digital treasury companies' decline in purchasing power and giant whale sell-offs are limiting Bitcoin's rise
TechFlame
2025-10-21 03:39
TechFlame2025-10-21 03:39
English
TechFlame reports that 10x Research published an article on the X platform stating that Bitcoin's drastic consolidation will not last forever, and that Bitcoin's performance is not cyclically driven — but rather determined by how much new capital enters the market to offset the exit. Unlike gold, the price of Bitcoin depends more on actual net demand flowing into the asset than on interest rate expectations. Monitoring the dynamic balance between Bitcoin's supply and demand provides a strong advantage in predicting the next direction of the market.
The current market narrative is mainly shaped by two dominant crypto topics — and since early this summer, we've taken the lead in grasping both. The core theme is: Digital Asset Treasury (Digital Asset Treasury) is running out of purchasing power, and selling pressure from traditional holders has temporarily limited Bitcoin's upside.
We have long anticipated that Bitcoin's volatility will shrink after the momentum brought about by the US GENIUS Act subsides, leaving the market in the “air layer” during the summer recess of Congress. The slowdown in news flow is expected to curb volatility, reduce the net asset value of Bitcoin treasury companies, and limit aggressive stock placements and additional Bitcoin purchases by companies such as MicroStrategy, thereby naturally limiting Bitcoin's upside. Our prediction of a significant repricing of MicroStrategy relative to Bitcoin has come true, and its net asset value (NAV) has shrunk to just 1.2 times.
When these analyses were published, digital asset vault companies were still viewed as untouchable, praised by service provider research teams, and amplified by the media — long before the market began to recognize the vulnerabilities we had identified. MicroStrategy is now buying just tens of millions of dollars instead of billions of dollars—too small to convince investors that fresh capital is driving Bitcoin's next round of growth.
The second narrative limiting Bitcoin's rise is that the market realizes that traditional wallets are selling bitcoins worth billions of dollars — actually selling to ETF demand. Our June 20, 2025 report “Who Really Influences Bitcoin Prices?” This development was recognized in the early stages, and “How Smart Money Can Quietly Limit Bitcoin's Rise — How Traders Should Respond” (June 26, 2025) and “The $8.6 billion dormant Bitcoin Just Moved — What It Means and How to Trade” (July 5, 2025) were published. It took a while for the market to keep up with this narrative, but eventually the movers ran out of reasons to maintain a bullish argument.
Since June, our analysis has shown that the sales volume of these traditional holders only matches the ability of ETFs and new market entrants to absorb capital, which avoided a market crash but created a new equilibrium. In this environment, Bitcoin's volatility is bound to decrease — the best strategy is to sell the volatility because the price is likely to remain range-bound.
Until recently, selling volatility has been one of the most profitable strategies of the past few months. Bitcoin is still around $11 million despite a leverage-driven flash crash